Probable But Unlikely (results of war in Ukraine)
What Could Happen…
Putin is going to lose his brutal and idiotic war. Hopefully the US and friends won’t give him a target for a tactical nuke, so he won’t be able to retreat with a big swinging dick. Russia will take that chunk of eastern Ukraine and Crimea, alas. But that’s it. Putie should pay for the damage, but won’t — not directly. Likely he will pay with his life soon enough, and Russians will be cleaning up this sewage spill for a decade or so.
But then comes the good part:
NATO is revived in the best way imaginable: Not only is the Atlantic Alliance vibrantly alive and well, the Europeans will now begin to do what they have NEVER done — take real responsibility for their security. They’ll commit to investments that will make an EU-based force, with minimal US backing, an appropriately formidable military force capable of defending itself and projecting force where and when needed for global peace protection.
Moreover, democracy will have scored a really big one against autocrats in terms that brutes can understand. The resounding defeat of Putism and cronies, including his pals in China, will echo for decades. This will mark the end of Russia as a credible conventional military threat. It leaves them with thousands of militarily useless nukes and highlights the urgent need to reinstate an Intermediate Forces treaty along with significant strategic nuclear force reductions on all sides.
If we don’t take dramatic action against nuclear weapons on the heels of Ukraine, every country on the planet with a credit card is going to want one to forestall the next metaphoric attack on their Kyiv. Let’s not go there, ‘K?
There are things we can do besides a triumphalist parade for democracy and globalist liberalism. The US could, for example, declare a policy of No First Use of nukes paired with new arrangements to replace the Sole Authority of a president — who might again be a boob — to start a civilization-ending (though climate-correcting) nuclear war. It’s a good idea whose time has come.
We could gob-smack the world with an address delivered by President Biden at the UN wherein he announces that the US is, without preconditions or demands upon any other nation, going to dismantle its Ground Based Nuclear Deterrent. This might, with luck, give the Chinese pause before they fill the 400 holes they’ve dug in their western desert to be filled by new ICBMs.
Remember, a single thermonuclear weapon detonation can ruin an entire weekend. And can lead to an exchange that ends life on the surface of this rock.
So, let’s visualize the truly cosmic opportunity for global transformation that the amazing heroism and military competence of the Ukrainian people is birthing. And let’s not blow this chance to change the world dramatically when the occasion arises — in about a month.
Stand by. Keep hands and feet inside the vehicle.